March 11, 2007
Fannie, Freddie, and Ben
March 10, 2007
The January Trade Balance: Reading the Tea Leaves
Are declining capital imports growth rates an indicator of recession?
March 09, 2007
Slower employment growth
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that U.S. nonfarm payrolls, as measured by their survey of establishments, increased by a seasonally adjusted 97,000 workers in February.
March 08, 2007
WMDs in Iraq, "Last throes..." and... "deficits don't matter"
According to former Secretary of Treasury Paul O'Neill, Dick Cheney is reputed to have said: "...deficits don't matter." (see Suskind's The Price of Loyalty, and online here). What's the (updated) evidence?
March 06, 2007
Financial or banking panics were a recurrent theme in 19th-century U.S. economic history.
March 05, 2007
Globalization and Inflation: Thinking about Identification
Recent news articles (, ) and blog posts (Economists View, Big Picture) have discussed Bernanke's March 2 speech on globalization and inflation.
March 03, 2007
Featuring prominently in the new energy plan from President Bush is a call for changes in the corporate average fuel efficiency (CAFE) standards that the Administration claims could reduce U.S. gasoline consumption by 5% over the next 10 years. Here are some of the reasons I'm not thrilled by that suggestion.
March 01, 2007
New feature: Econbrowser faces the data
We've added a couple of new features to the sidebar.
Whither the Chinese Yuan?
The problem with writing blog posts in advance (I wrote most of this on the 25th) is that they may very well be rendered obsolete by the passage of events, especially when covering financial markets. Hopefully, in this case, the heightened uncertainty in emerging markets -- as well as the durability of the yen carry trade -- will not change the outlook for the CNY very much.
February 28, 2007
Easy come, easy go
Well, that 3.5% 2006:Q4 GDP growth was fun while it lasted.
Recent data leave me significantly more bearish than I was a month ago.
February 27, 2007
The Fundamentals Are...
The equity indices take a dive. Is this in spite of -- or because of -- the fundamentals?
February 25, 2007
Fiscal Stimulus under Current Law and under a Probable Alternative
The CBO released The Cyclically Adjusted and Standardized Budget Measures last Thursday.
February 24, 2007
Creative exam answers
Now this is funny.
February 23, 2007
San Diego County pension fund
I have been developing concerns about the possibility that hedge fund investment flows have become a destabilizing force in world financial markets. Following the maxim "think globally, act locally," I decided to take a look at how the behavior of our local pension funds may be one small part of that phenomenom. And I have some recommendations to make on behalf of San Diego County residents and the world at large.
February 22, 2007
The Growth Outlook
Society Survey of Professional Forecasters latest report (dated 13 February) has been released. The mean forecast is quite interesting, in light of Jim's recent post on industrial production and the growth outlook.
February 21, 2007
Worrisome data on industrial production
February 20, 2007
Or some (more) things in the Budget Proposal don't add up
Suppose the President's plan to escalate troop levels in Iraq succeeds in stabilizating Baghdad. What does that mean for future expenditures in support of the occupation of Iraq? Is the President's $50 billion request for Iraq related expenditures in FY2009 consistent with the plan? This article from GovExec.com provides some hints.
February 17, 2007
Saudi oil production cuts
This is a potentially huge story that is not being adequately investigated by the financial press.
February 16, 2007
The December Trade Release: Beyond the Surprise
Almost old news, the February 13 BEA/Census release for December trade provided ample grist for the mill. Insightful perspective was provided by Brad Setser and David Altig. Here I try to add a few other insights.
February 15, 2007
The market reads Bernanke's lips
The Fed Chair speaks, and the market jumps. But why?
February 13, 2007
Resources for economics students and professors
Here is a collection of links to recent news stories that apply some of the ideas we've covered in the principles of economics class I'm teaching at UCSD this quarter.
February 12, 2007
The 2007 Economic Report of the President on Exchange Rate Determination (and the Renminbi)
The 2007 Economic Report of the President was released Monday afternoon. Chapter 7, entitled "Currency Markets and Exchange Rates," is a laudable exegesis on the determination of exchange rates.
February 11, 2007
How Paul Volcker became a practical monetarist
A bit of history I only recently learned.