August 2004

One of the key neo-con/Zionist influence peddlers of Washington DC, who makes and breaks, bribes and intimidates all US Senators and Congressional Reps, is Morris Amitay, at the very center of the influence web. He is at the cneter of JINSA (Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs) and AIPAC (America Israel Public Affairs Committee) influence-peddling.

His own more personal "influence machinery" is called the Washington PAC. ("Political Action Committee").

See below:

The Washington Political Action Committee was established November, 13 1980 right after the Presidential and Congressional elections - the same month Morrie Amitay established his law and consulting firm after serving six years as AIPAC's Executive Director. As Morrie put it, "It was time to practice what I had preached at AIPAC - political activism."

Since then, the PAC has carefully distributed, on a bipartisan basis, more than two million dollars to deserving U.S. Representatives and Senators who share the PAC's view that a secure Israel is in the best interests of the United States. Washington PAC is the second largest pro-Israel PAC in terms of contributions to Congressional candidates.

• "Our Capitol Hill location enables us to meet with Representative and Senators and to attend numerous fund raising events throughout the year.
• Our Advisory Board holds lively luncheons with US Senate candidates on a regular basis.
• The PAC's quarterly Senate elections newsletter has earned an excellent reputation for its insider political information.
• While the largest pro-Israel PAC over the years has contributed only 40% of its receipts to candidates, Washington PAC has contributed 80%.
• We consistently contribute each cycle to more Members of the House of Representatives than almost all of the other pro-Israel PAC's combined.
• As of the last FEC reporting period, June 30, 2003, Washington PAC was in the top 20 of all ideological PACs in the country--and the most non-partisan of all twenty!! This also means we were #1 of all the pro-Israel PACs."

The PAC is heavily involved in the current 2004 election cycle with more than $100,000 already contributed. While demand will always exceed supply, we back the right candidates for the right reasons, invest in the most important races, and determine where and when our dollars will have the most clout.

For further information or inquiries, please call us at 202-347-5859 or e-mail us at mjapc@erols.com.

Morris J Amitay ("Morrie") is a Washington attorney with his firm’s offices located on Capitol Hill. He represents a range of corporate clients specializing in defense and energy issues. He has been described by the Washingtonian magazine as "an insider" and "heavy hitter" and by the Washington Jewish Week as "the quintessential pro-Israel activist".

In 1981, as his "hobby", Morrie founded the Washington Political Action Committee, which has since contributed more than two million dollars to Israel’s supporters in the U.S. Congress.

Morrie has appeared as a pro-Israel commentator on a number of national radio and television programs including National Public Radio, the Lehrer Report, the Voice of America, Fox News and the BBC. He writes a regular column on political and foreign policy topics for a number of Jewish weeklies, and has addressed such diverse audiences as the Georgetown University Law Center, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the U.S. Naval Academy. He is frequently quoted in the media on a variety of Middle East- related subjects.

Morrie is Vice Chairman of the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA), and leads its annual visit to Israel of retired U.S. Generals and Admirals for briefings by Israel’s top military and political leaders. He has also served on the boards of a number of national security think tanks in Washington, and has been an adviser to Presidential candidates of both major political parties on Middle East issues.

Morrie was Executive Director of the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) from 1974 through 1980. During his tenure, AIPAC gained the reputation- as the New York Times put it- as "the most powerful, best run and effective foreign policy interest group in Washington". He maintains close contact with AIPAC and serves in that organization’s National Assembly. His counsel is frequently sought by many major Jewish organizations and by Israeli leadership.

Before coming to AIPAC, Morrie served for five years as a senior legislative aide in the U.S. Senate, where he took a lead role in organizing congressional initiatives affecting Israel and Soviet Jewry. As a Foreign Service Officer from 1962 to 1969, Morrie had assignments in Italy, at the State Department in Washington, and as Political Officer at the U.S. Embassy in South Africa.

Morrie earned his undergraduate degree from Columbia, his J.D. degree from the Harvard Law School (he wrote his thesis for Dr. Henry Kissinger’s Defense Policy Seminar) and a Master’s degree in Public Administration from Harvard.

Morrie is a highly-sought speaker, contributes articles to various publications, and has published innumerable letters to the editor correcting skewed coverage of the Arab-Israeli conflict and American Jewish politics.

• Letter to Defense News - June 7, 2004
• Letter to Defense News - April 26, 2004
• Remarks at the Jerusalem Summit - October 13, 2003
• Letter to Defense News - October 27, 2003
• Review of Saul Singer's Confronting Jihad

"Washington PAC Newsletter"

2004 U.S. SENATE ELECTIONS

UPDATE

*RICHARD SHELBY (R) Elected 1992. 1998 Winning Percentage 63%.

Appropriations (Defense).

Shelby should defeat Democrat Wayne Sowell or Johnny Swanson III in November, and need only a fraction of his whopping $11.3M war chest to do so. Both Dems ran in the ’02 Senate race, with Sowell managing just 9% in the primary, and Swanson less than 1% as an Independent in the general. Swanson, one of the first African Americans to enter the Citadel military academy hopes to raise at least $2M, but no matter, Shelby, the former Democrat, is cruising to a huge victory.

*LISA MURKOWSKI (R) Appointed 2002.

Supportive since assuming office.

The moderate Murkowski continues to be the most vulnerable GOP incumbent. Since last fall, polls have consistently shown her slightly behind her Dem opponent, former two-term Gov. Tony Knowles. In an early April poll, Knowles was up 48% to 45%. Knowles also led in fundraising the last two quarters, but Murkowski leads $1.6M to $900K in cash on hand. Murkowski must deal with a primary challenge from the right (ex-state Sen. Pres. Mike Miller) and lingering resentment that her father, Governor Frank Murkowski, picked her to fill out his Senate term. However, Murkowski, who is the first Alaska-born Senator in history, has been campaigning hard with very strong national GOP support. Plus, Alaska went for Bush by 31 points in 2000. Two crucial factors on Election Day will be the final tally for Green Party candidate Jim Sykes, who has taken 2-3% in polls, and the standing of Gov. Murkowski. The average temperature in Alaska in early November is only 35 degrees, but this race should warm things up.

*JOHN McCAIN (R) Elected 1986. 1998 Winning Percentage 68.7%

Armed Services.

Joining the Kerry ticket is only a Dem fantasy, so the popular maverick McCain should be back for a fourth term of giving heartburn to his GOP colleagues. For the Dems, only political neophyte and math teacher Stuart Starky has entered the race and no serious challengers are on the horizon.

BLANCHE LINCOLN (D) Elected 1998. 1998 Winning Percentage 55.1%

Theoretically, the centrist Lincoln should be vulnerable in the increasingly GOP controlled South, but the GOP failed to recruit a credible candidate, and the popular Lincoln, with $3.1M cash, now looks invulnerable. The GOP "contenders" are; state Sen. Jim Holt (who claims his family of ten lives off his $14K a year salary), former Benton County Sheriff Andy Lee (who favors a constitutional amendment to allow only Christian school prayer),and ex-alderman Tom Formicola (has not said much) Unlike elsewhere in Dixie, Democrats can feel real good about Arkansas.

*BARBARA BOXER (D) Elected 1992. 1998 Winning Percentage 53%.

Foreign Relations (Ranking Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs Subcommittee).

The GOP has a solid nominee in former Secretary of State Bill Jones, and with the "Governator" strongly backing him, the liberal Boxer faces a worthy challenge. Boxer is more than ready. With a 54% to 34% lead in a late April poll, Boxer had already challenged the conservative Jones (author of the original "three strikes, you’re out" law) to debate. She is a hard-hitting campaigner, and out raised Jones $1.5M to $1M last quarter to build a $6M cash on hand advantage. Democrats also hold a one million plus registration advantage in LaLa land, where Bush lost by over a million votes in 2000. For Jones to have any realistic shot of making this race close, he has to seriously increase his voter recognition without being portrayed as too conservative, stay close in fundraising, and have Arnold’s popularity cross-over.

*BEN NIGHTHORSE CAMPBELL (R) Elected 1992. 1998 Winning Percentage 62.5%

Appropriations (Foreign Ops Subcommittee).

Given Campbell’s health problems, his retirement was not unexpected. However, the divisive GOP scramble to find a successor has lifted Dem hopes for a pick-up. Initially, Gov. Bill Owens, four GOP congressmen and Lt. Gov. Gail Norton all seemed interested, but all passed. Then conservative former Rep. Bob Schaffer entered the race, but Owens and GOP leaders tried to woo real estate magnate David Liniger into the race. When this attempt failed, Schaffer appeared to be the consensus choice, but then Owens convinced more moderate brewing magnate Pete Coors to enter the race. Now with half the GOP congressional delegation backing Schaffer, and the other half behind Coors, a divisive and expensive primary is likely. The Dems, on the other hand, coalesced behind state Attorney General Ken Salazar, their best potential candidate. Also running, but not a factor, is educator Mike Miles. Salazar was first elected AG in ’98 and won re-election in ’02 by 20 points, and his roots are in rural (read: non-liberal) Colorado. While Bush won the state by 8 points in ’00, and Dems fared poorly against Sen. Allard in ’02, Salazar is the favorite at this point, and in mid-April poll Salazar led Schaffer 48% to 37% and Coors 52% to 36%. He should also be able to raise serious money for this crucial race. Coors is the wildcard. Although a political newcomer, he is universally known in Colorado and has considerable personal resources. A close race could be brewing.

*CHRISTOPHER DODD (D) Elected 1980. 1998 Winning Percentage 62.5%

Foreign Relations.

There are five neophyte GOP candidates vying to topple the four-term veteran Dodd. Former fashion exec, Jack Orchulli, is considered the frontrunner on the basis of his money. The others are author Paul Streitz, research scientist Miriam Massullo, and Taco Bell manager William Bentley and Alphonse Wright (no information available). With $4M on hand, Dodd is a shoo-in for re-election in the Constitution State.

*BOB GRAHAM (D) Elected 1986. 1998 Winning Percentage 62.5%

The race to replace Graham includes top-tier well-financed candidates on both sides (seven have over $1M on hand), but in an April poll, "undecided" led in both parties and this race is wide open. For the Dems, upstate former state Education Commissioner Betty Castor continues to be the clear frontrunner and last quarter she raised $1.3M. In the April poll, Castor led all Dems with 33% followed by Rep. Peter Deutsch (excellent record) 16% and Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas 9%. However, with 41% undecided, Deutsch, who has a $3.8M to $1.6M advantage over Castor, has the resources to do better. On the GOP side, a two man race is shaping up between ’00 Senate candidate and former Rep. Bill McCollum (good record) and former "W" HUD Secretary Mel Martinez. The April poll had McCollum at 27% and Martinez at 18%. Martinez, the White House pick, was a late entrant into the race and is quickly gaining ground in the polls and out raised McCollum $1.7M to 640K last quarter. Other significant GOP’er running are state House Minority Leader Johnny Byrd, state Senator Daniel Webster, and wealthy businessman Dough Gallagher. The well-funded Byrd has potential. In general election match ups, Castor is narrowly ahead of McCollum and Martinez. This contest should be very competitive, and while it is currently overshadowed by the presidential race in Florida, it will garner significant national attention.

ZELL MILLER (D) Elected 2000. Retiring.

Not particularly involved in our issues.

Dems are defending five open seats in the South, and Miller’s seat is the least likely to be retained. The GOP ascendancy in the Peachtree State has been significant, and in ’02 Dem incumbent Senator Max Cleland was unseated. This year, the Dems do not even have a top-tier candidate. Freshman Rep. Denise Majette (good record), who unseated the controversial Cynthia McKinney in ‘02, defied political logic with her entrance into the race in March. She joins state Sen. Mary Squires and millionaire businessman Cliff Oxford, as well as some no-names. On the GOP side, a heated primary battle is being waged between moderate pro-choice Rep. Johnny Isakson (very good record) and conservative Rep. Mac Collins (mixed record). Isakson is the clear frontrunner and has a $3.5M to $1M advantage, but in the past he has been vulnerable to conservative attacks. Also in the GOP race is conservative African-American pizza magnate Herman Cain, who is campaigning hard and remains above the Isakson-Collins fray. The GOP primary race should stay hot with a run-off very possible, but right now Isakson is looking like the next Senator from Georgia.

*DANIEL INOUYE (D) Elected 1962. Winning Percentage 79.2%

Appropriations (Ranking Defense and Foreign Ops Subcommittee)

When Inouye, the 79 year-old decorated WWII hero announced in February he was running for re-election, an eighth term became virtually assured. He has no GOP opposition, and so far the only challenge is coming from fellow Democrat Brian Evans, a 33 year-old Vegas lounge singer/former bit TV sitcom actor whose main issue is expanding dental coverage.

*MICHAEL CRAPO (R) Elected 1998. 1998 Winning Percentage 69.5%

Crapo could be the first Senator in Idaho history to run unopposed. Dems missed the filing deadline and although a sacrificial lamb could still get into the general with 1,000 write-in primary votes, is it worth the effort?

ILLINOIS-OPEN

PETER FITZGERALD (R) Elected 1998. 1998 Winning Percentage 50.3%

The race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Jack Ryan for Fitzergald’s open seat should be competitive, expensive (both raised $3M in the first quarter of ’04), and is already personal, as Obama’s past drug use and Ryan’s refusal to release divorce records have made the headlines. Obama, a 42 year-old state Senator who was the first African American editor of the Harvard Law Review, garnered a very impressive 53% in a seven person Dem primary. Ryan, a 44 year-old political newcomer/investment banker turned inner-city teacher (and also a Harvard Law grad) captured 36% in a nine person GOP primary. In a post-primary Dem poll, Obama led Ryan 52% to 33%, and in 2000, Gore won Illinois by 12 points. However, the telegenic hard-charging Ryan is a moderate and willing to spend millions of his own money ($3M so far). This race should be close but with a clear edge to Obama, considered a "rising star" in the Democratic Party. He will have strong national support to not only pick up a GOP seat, but become just the third African American Senator in the past 100 years.

*EVAN BAYH (D) Elected 1998. 1998 Winning Percentage 63.7%

Armed Services. Select Intelligence.

The only hope the GOP has that Bayh does not return for a second term is if the ex-two-term Governor becomes Kerry’s VP pick and Kerry wins the White House in November. Bayh, who can run for both offices simultaneously, is the most popular Democrat in Hoosier history. With $7M in the bank, no serious Republicans want any part of him. Running for the GOP will be former congressional primary loser/sociology professor, Marvin Scott.

*CHARLES GRASSLEY (R) Elected 1980. 1998 Winning Percentage 68.4%

To win a fifth term, Grassley will have only "small" opposition literally and figuratively from the only Dem to file for the race, ex-state Sen. Art Small. Actually, a better description of Small’s chances against the popular former farmer and Finance Committee Chairs (who has $5.8M in the bank) would be tiny.

*SAM BROWNBACK (R) Elected 1996. 1998 Winning Percentage 65.3%

Appropriations. Foreign Relations (Near Eastern and South Asian affairs Subcommittee).

After Dems won the Governor’s race in ’02, Brownback was potentially vulnerable against a few select Sunflower State Dems, all who declined to run. Now Dems are just looking for anyone to run. Business exec and political neophyte Joan Ruff quit in mid-March, and Dems admit a challenge to Brownback is "daunting." There has not been a Democrat elected Senator from the Kansas in over 70 years and this losing streak should continue.

*JIM BUNNING (R) Elected 1998. 1998 Winning Percentage 49.7%

Last year, Bunning, a Hall of Fame pitcher, was expecting the Bluegrass State Dem’s biggest slugger, Gov. Paul Patton, to step up to the plate, but Patton benched himself due to a personal scandal. Pinch hitting for the Dems is second-stringer state Sen. Daniel Mongiardo. Bunning led Mongiardo by close to 30 points in a Jan poll, has a $3.6M to $243K cash advantage, a 62% approval rating, and should have another Senate victory to go with 224 MLB victories. Bunning got himself into a bit of trouble with a joke he made that Mongiardo looked like one of Saddam’s sons (unclear whether Uday or Qusay), but he is looking strong going into late innings.

JOHN BREAUX (D) Elected 1986. 1998 Winning Percentage 64%

When Breaux decided to retire in December, a final run-off between four-term Dem Rep. Chris John (fair record) and GOP Rep David Vitter (very good record) was envisioned. Vitter still looks strong (especially with ex-GOP Gov. Buddy Roemer backing off talk of a possible run) but John is locked in a struggle against state Treasurer John Kennedy for the other run-off spot. Vitter leads John and Kennedy (who are neck and neck) in open primary polls. In the ’03 gubernatorial election, a Republican finished first in the open primary and then lost to a Dem in the run-off, and while Louisiana has not elected a GOP Senator since Reconstruction, this race could end that streak.

*BARBARA MIKULSKI (D) Elected 1986. 1998 Winning Percentage 70.5%

Appropriations (Foreign Ops Subcommittee). Select Intelligence.

Mikulski faces GOP state Sen. E.J. Pipken who handily won an eight person primary and will be assisted by GOP Governor Robert Ehrlich. Pipken can self-fund and he is making himself visible to voters. However, Pipken still has no chance of upsetting the popular Old Line State legend. Maryland is very Democratic (Gore won by 16 points in ’00) and in a March poll, Mikulski led Pipken 59% to 27% and had a 62% approval rating. More so, Mikulski takes nothing for granted. She raised $1M in the first quarter of ’04 and will run a well-funded hard-charging campaign.

*CHRISTOPER (KIT) BOND (R) Elected 1986. 1998 Winning Percentage 52.7%

Appropriations (Foreign Ops and Defense Subcommittee). Select Intelligence.

Once again, Bond, who received 53% or less in his three Senate wins, is vulnerable in this evenly divided battleground state. Dems have a solid nominee in state Treasurer Nancy Farmer who would benefit if Dick Gephardt is the Kerry VP. Farmer, though, was not the Dems’ first choice and Dems must deal with a divisive gubernatorial primary and general election. The battle-hardened veteran Bond meanwhile has built up a very sizable $5M to $800K cash advantage and a Jan independent poll had Bond up 52% to 35%. Even a Feb Dem poll had him up 49% to 39%. While this race will probably be close as usual, expect Bond to come out on top once again.

*Harry Reid (D) Elected in 1986. 1998 Winning Percentage 47.9%

Minority Whip. Appropriations (Defense Subcommittee).

Reid won by just 428 votes in 1998, and started the cycle as a top GOP target. But while the Republicans were waiting for Rep. Jim Gibbons to mount a challenge, the campaign savvy Reid was raising serious cash and locking up key Silver State endorsements. By the time Gibbons declined, and with Reid in full stride, other statewide GOP officeholders who were potential candidates were basically scared off. The only Republican in the race is conservative activist Richard Ziser, who trailed Reid 61% to 26% in a March poll. Danny Tarktanian, the son of the legendary UNLV coach is also considering a long-shot run. Reid with $4.6M is the odd-on favorite here.

Judd Gregg (R) Elected in 1992. 1998 Winning Percentage 67.8%

Appropriations (Foreign Ops and Defense Subcommittee).

The conservative Gregg is facing feisty opposition from seven-term state Sen. Burt Cohen. With a neighboring state favorite son at the top of the Dem ticket and the Granite State’s four electoral votes very much in play, Cohen could also benefit. However, in a March poll Gregg led Cohen 54% to 13%, and while private polling shows the race closer, Gregg with $1.6M to $400K cash advantage and a 63% favorable rating looks solid for re-election.

*CHARLES SCHUMER (D) Elected in 1998. 1998 Winning Percentage 54.6%

Empire State GOP leaders have endorsed Assemblyman Howard Mills in the contest against Schumer, and Mills has absolutely no chance against the popular incumbent with his astronomical $21M war chest. The choice of Mills has also has evoked embarrassing cries of outrage from already entered GOP candidate Michael Benjamin, whose campaign and fundraising so far can only be described as pathetic. Schumer led both GOP lesser lights by over 50 points in a recent poll. Many expect that after re-election, Schumer will turn his sights (and considerable campaign war chest) on a run for Governor in 2006.

JOHN EDWARDS (D) Elected in 1998. 1998 Winning Percentage 51.2%

Select Intelligence.

Next year, Edwards, who six years ago had no political experience, could be the Vice President or go back to his law practice. He definitely will not be a Senator any more, and his seat will be filled by either Democrat Erskine Bowles, a former Clinton chief of staff and losing ’02 Senate candidate, or GOP Rep. Richard Burr (good record). Bowles’ narrow loss to Elizabeth Dole in ’02 gave him experience and exposure, and with his personal wealth (he put $7M into the ’02 contest) his is running strong. Burr, who entered the race before Edwards dropped out, has strong GOP backing and fundraising abilities, but his name ID is still low and consistently has trailed Bowles in polling. As the race heats up, however, and with plenty of money (Burr has $5.8M on hand) this one should be very tight. Bush won the Tarheel State by 13 points in ’00 and should repeat, making this race a toss-up for now.

*BYRON DORGAN (D) Elected in 1992. 1998 Winning Percentage 63.2%

Appropriations (Defense).

Bush won North Dakota by 28 points in ’00, and if former GOP Gov Ed Schafer had decided to run against Dorgan, it could have been close. But Schafer never showed real interest, and then in succession two GOP candidates entered the race only to withdraw. The fact remains that no matter who might have run for the GOP and no matter how well Bush might do, Dorgan, who has spent the last 35 straight years as North Dakota officeholder, and has $2.2M in the bank, was not going to be turned out by Roughrider State voters. The GOP will offer up attorney Michael Liffrig as its sacrificial lamb in November.

GEORGE VOINOVICH (R) Elected in 1998. 1998 Winning Percentage 56.5%

Foreign Relations (Near Eastern and South Asian affairs Subcommittee).

Voinovich is being challenged by former one-term Dem Congressman and current state Sen. Eric Fingerhut. Ohio is a battleground state and the added attention could help Fingerhut who has closed a once 42 point poll gap to 16 points in a March poll. However, this is still a very large margin. Though a credible candidate, Fingerhut cannot go toe to toe with Voinovich, a former two-term Governor and Cleveland Mayor with 97% name recognition and a whopping $5M to $110K cash on hand advantage.

*RON WYDEN (D) Elected in 1996. 1998 Winning Percentage 61.1%

Select Intelligence.

An eclectic mix of six lower-tier GOP candidates are vying for a sure defeat this Fall at the hands of the popular Wyden. With $3.4M, a 30 point lead in generic polls, Wyden has a clear path to re-election in the Beaver State.

* DON NICKLES (R) Elected in 1980. 1998 Winning Percentage 66.4%

Majority Whip.

Retaining Nickles’ seat is shaping up to be a difficult task for the GOP. The Sooner State should be considered GOP country given with the big Bush win in 2000 and with six Republicans on the seven member congressional delegation. However, Democrats hold five of eight statewide offices and control both houses of the legislature. More so for the Dems, in this open seat race, they have united behind their strongest possible candidate, 36 year-old moderate Rep. Brad Carson (fine record). The GOP, on the other hand, is looking at a rough and tumble primary between former Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphreys (the establishment pick), ultra-conservative former Rep. Tom Coburn, and state Corporation Commissioner Bob Anthony. Humphries was the early primary frontrunner and raised $630K last quarter, but he needs to spend it because in an April independent poll Coburn led Humphries 34%, to 22%, with Anthony at 12%. Carson, a Rhodes scholar, raised $720K last quarter ($1.5M on hand) and has no real intra-party concerns. While Bush will probably win big again in Oklahoma, Democrats are smelling a pick up. The PAC has contributed to Carson based on his fine record in the House.

*ARLEN SPECTER (R) Elected in 1980. 1998 Winning Percentage 61.3%

Appropriations (Foreign Ops and Defense Subcommittee)

The 73 year-old Specter had to expend a considerable amount of energy and campaign resources ($14M) to repel an unexpectedly fierce primary challenge from conservative Rep. Pat Toomey. Specter now faces another credible challenger in the general in Democratic Rep. Joe Hoeffel (fine record). The GOP primary was draining on Specter, but the hard-charging former prosecutor is used to tough fights and should be able to quickly reload and refocus for the general campaign. In addition, Toomey’s barrage of commercials decrying Specter as too liberal now only serve to burnish Specter’s moderate reputation, a reputation that has enabled Specter to attract Dem voters and traditional Dem financial and political support for the past 24 years. Specter out raised Hoeffel $2.4M to $586K last quarter (an ominous showing for Hoeffel) and while most of Specter’s contributions were spent on the primary, he should be able to keep up this pace for the general and be re-elected for a fifth term.

ERNEST (FRITZ) HOLLINGS (D) Elected in 1966. 1998 Winning Percentage 52.7%

Appropriations (Ranking Defense Subcommittee).

The retirement of 82 year-old Hollings was expected, and so too, was a GOP pick-up of the seat in the increasingly conservative Palmetto State. However this expected outcome is now in question. The Democrats cleared the field for state Education Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum, who is showing herself to be a very strong candidate. She raised $925K last quarter and has wisely stressed her independence from the Kerry campaign. Meanwhile, the GOP is facing a resource draining six person primary that includes four serious contenders. The frontrunner is former Gov. David Beasley, who is likely to end up in a run-off with either Rep. Jim DeMint (fair record), former AG Charlie Condon, or developer Thomas Ravenel. As the GOP candidates fight it out among themselves, in a March poll Tenenbaum was ahead of all of them (Beasley 46% to 41%, Condon 47% to 40%, DeMint 48% to 43%). However, if Beasley (who raised $1.23M last quarter) emerges as the GOP nominee, with Bush at the top of ticket, a Tenenbaum win would be considered an impressive upset.

*TOM DASCHLE (D) Elected in 1986. 1998 Winning Percentage 62.1%

Minority Leader.

The GOP is doing absolutely everything it can to defeat Democratic Leader Daschle.  Having convinced an initially reluctant ex-Rep John Thune to run again after narrowly losing a Senate bid in ’02, Republicans are raising Thune serious money ($2.2M last quarter).  And now, Senate Majority leader Bill Frist is taking the unprecedented step of going into Daschle’s home state to help defeat him. Unfazed, Daschle continues to campaign hard, smash all state fundraising records ($2.9M last quarter) and he has "welcomed" Frist’s attention to South Dakota. Daschle also took a Nader-like thorn out of his side when he convinced American Indian publisher Tim Giago to drop an independent Senate bid and support him instead. American Indians comprise 8 percent of the population and in ’02 when Johnson defeated Thune by just 528 votes he won 80% of the Indian vote.  The likable and confident Daschle, who has a $3M cash advantage and a consistent slight lead in the polls should not be out raised or out-campaigned, and while this race is considered at toss-up, we give the edge to Daschle.        

ROBERT BENNETT (R) Elected in 1992. 1998 Winning Percentage 64%

Appropriations (Foreign Ops Subcommittee).

Bennett a second generation Senator from the conservative Beehive State should face Democratic former AG Paul Van Dam this November and soundly defeat him (as well as independent candidates from the Constitution and Personal Choice parties). Bennett led Van Dam 63% to 16% in a mid-March poll and is coasting to re-election.

PATRICK LEAHY (D) Elected in 1974. 1998 Winning Percentage 72.2%

Appropriations (Ranking on Foreign Ops and Defense Subcommittees)

The ultra-liberal Leahy has become a Green Mountain State institution. Although his likely GOP opponent, businessman Jack McMullen (’98 Senate primary loser), is airing ads asking voters to yank the "tired" Leahy, as the Red Sox manager should have yanked a tired Pedro Martinez in last year’s playoff series loss to the Yankees, Leahy can count on being left in the game by Vermont voters for another six years.

*PATTY MURRAY (D) Elected in 1992. 1998 Winning Percentage 58%.

Appropriations.

Murray, a prime GOP target, could have faced a very tough challenge from retiring veteran GOP Rep. Jennifer Dunn, but Dunn passed on it early leaving it up to Rep. George Nethercutt (good record). Nethercutt, who knocked off then House Majority Leader Tom Foley in ’94, is an aggressive campaigner with strong national GOP support. Murray though is running strong, out raising Nethercutt $1.35M to $850K in the first quarter of ’04 for a $4.9M to $1.7M cash on hand advantage. She has also remained consistently ahead by double digits in the polls. Nethercutt also faces minor primary opposition from college professor Reed Davis. Murray, the original political "mom in tennis shoes" should be back for a third term.

*RUSSELL FEINGOLD (D) Elected in 1992. 1998 Winning Percentage 50.5%

Foreign Relations.

Feingold barely won in ’98, his poll numbers are just OK, and the GOP is gunning for him. But unlike ’98 when he ran against a sitting Congressman who outspent him, this year the GOP has just four B-teamers who must fight it out for the September nomination. The nominal front-runner is state Sen./’94 Senate losing nominee Bob Welch. Joining him is political neophyte/car dealer Russ Darrow, businessman/’98 Senate losing candidate Tim Michels, and attorney/’02 Sec. of State loser, Robert Lorge. In a March poll Feingold had a 51% re-elect (29% "someone else"). He also has $3.5M on hand. The eventual GOP nominee might be able badger Feingold, but not much more.

PAC NOTES All of our favorite House incumbents look good for re-election at this point except for veteran Democrat Martin Frost (TX-24) who was re-districted and is running against a Republican incumbent in a new GOP majority congressional district.