Richard Melson

November 2004

Dear Madam, dear Sir,

The Palestinian Center for Public Opinion ( PCPO) has recently carried out two polls, the first before the death of President Yassir Arafat, and the second after his death. Both polls focused on the thoughts, inclinations and intentions of the Palestinians about "hot" questions of current interest such as the election of the president of the Palestinian Authority, the re-election of US President George Bush, the Palestinian-Israeli relations, the right of home-return for the refugees and many other political issues. We hope that these surveys will be of benefit to you, and please don’t hesitate in sending us your comments.

Assuring you our best services now and in future, we remain

Yours faithfully

Dr. Nabil Kukali

and

Prepared by President Dr.Nabil Kukali.

(88%) grieved about the death of President Yassir Arafat

(59.2%) satisfied to varying degrees with the election of Mr. Mahmoud Abbas

(Abu Mazen) Chairman of the PLO Executive Committee.

(70.1%) satisfied to varying degrees with the election of Mr. Ruhi Fattuh President

of the Palestinian Authority.

(16%) are pleased to different degrees with the re-election of US President George

Bush.

(68.5%) believe that the security-political situation is worrisome.

(45%) support a unilateral declaration of the truce.

(35%) oppose to the decision of amending the women’s quota, while (41.8%)

support the amendment.

(27%) consider Mr. Mahmoud Abbas "Abu Mazen" as the first Palestinian

personality, who is capable of leading the Palestinian Authority after the

death of the president, whilst (15.2%) consider Mr. Marwan Bargouthi as

the second personality.

(57.7%) support the coordination of Israel with the Palestinian Authority before the

Gaza withdrawal.

(30.6%) believe to varying degrees that the re-election of US President George Bush

will serve the peace in the region.

From Majd Kokaly – Information Section

Two polls are recently prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali and conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO). The first one is carried out during the period November 4 – 8, 2004 (before the death of president Yassir Arafat) and the second during the period November 13 – 16, 2004 (after the death of president Arafat).

The first poll included a random sample of (632) respondents from the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip, and the second one was limited to the residents of the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, with a random sample of (552) respondents.

"The most significant thing both polls reveal" said Dr. Kukali, president of the PCPO, "is the very high degree of sympathy the Palestinians have shown to president Yassir Arafat in the course of his illness and at his death, the matter which reflects the strong attachment of the majority of the Palestinians to their deceased president, as well as their sympathy and loyalty to him".

Dr. Kukali added also that "the results of both polls revealed the superiority of Mr. Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazin) in the succession to the presidency, followed in the second position by Mr. Marwan Barghouthi and Mr. Farouk Kaddoumi in the third position". Dr. Kukali concluded his statement saying that "the margin of error in the first poll was (±3.9%) and in the second (±4.2%). The percentage of the female respondents in the two polls was (47.3%) and (48.2%) respectively, whilst that of the male ones was (52.7%) and (51.8%). The average size of the respondent families in the first poll was (7.5) persons and in the second one (7.2) persons".

Dr. Kukali add that the average age of the respondent in the first poll was (32) years and in the second one (31) years.

Dr. Kukali said the results of the poll were as follows:

1) To which extent are you grieved about the death of president Yassir Arafat ?

1. very much grieved

67.2%

2. somewhat grieved

20.9%

3. somewhat unconcerned

5.8%

4. very much unconcerned

2.7%

5. no opinion

3.4%

2) Mr. Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazin) is elected Chairman of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). Are you satisfied with that, or not?

November 13 – 16, 2004

1. very much satisfied

37.9%

2. somewhat satisfied

21.4%

3. somewhat dissatisfied

8.9%

4. very much dissatisfied

25.5%

5. no opinion

6.7%

3) Mr. Ruhi Fattuh is elected President of the Palestinian Authority for a limited period of 60 days in accordance with the Palestinian constitution. Are you satisfied with that, or not.

November 13 – 16, 2004

1. very much satisfied

45.3%

2. somewhat satisfied

32.8%

3. somewhat dissatisfied

7.8%%

4. very much dissatisfied

12.5%

5. no opinion

9.6%

4) Having in the background the absence of President Yassir Arafat, do you support or not support the Palestinian organizations in a unilateral declaration of the truce?

November 4 – 8, 2004

November 13 – 16, 2004

1. Support

26.6%

45.0%

2. Don’t support

59.6%

46.6%

3. Don’t know

13.8%

8.4%

5) Having the absence of President Yassir Arafat in the background, a certain percentage of people in the West Bank and Gaza strip agree to the halt of the suicide attacks inside Israel, whilst others agree to their continuity. Which of the following attitudes is next to your opinion?

November 4 – 8, 2004

1. the halt of the suicide attacks inside Israel.

37.9%

2. the continuity of the suicide attacks inside Israel

46.0%

3. don’t know / refuse to answer

16.1%

6) Having in the background the absence of President Yassir Arafat, who is the Palestinian personality capable – according to your opinion – of leading the Palestinian authority? (Open question)

November 4 – 8, 2004

November 13 – 16, 2004

1. Mahmoud Abbas"Abu Mazen"

35.6%

27.0%

2. Marwan Bargouthi

8.5%

15.2%

3. Farouq El-Qaddoumi

3.2%

14.5%

4. Tayyeb Abdel Raheem

2.2%

11.1%

5. Ahmad Qrei’

20.5%

10.3%

6. Mohammad Dahlan

5.3%

2.4%

7. Mustafa Barghouthi

3.6%

3.6%

8. Jibreel Rjoub

0.9%

3.0%

9. Saeb Ereikat

2.9%

0.9%

10. Ruhi Fattuh

-----

2.6%

11. Ahmad Abd Al-Rohman

-----

1.3%

12. Azam Al-Ahmad

-----

1.3%

13. Nasser Al-Qudweh

0.9%

0.9%

14. Mahmoud Al-Zahar

3.8%

0.3%

15. Asmaeel Abu Hanya

2.9%

0.2%

16. Haider Abdel Shfi

-----

0.2%

17. Nabil Abu Rodayna

2.7%

1.1%

18. Hassan Khresha

-----

1.1%

19. Hanan Ashrawi

0.2%

0.9%

20. Abdallah Al-Shami

0.4%

-----

21. Nabil Sh’ath

0.4%

0.6%

22. Mohmad Al-Hindi

0.7%

-----

23. Abbas Zaki

0.2%

-----

24. Saleem Al-Zanoon

0.2%

-----

25. Abed Alrahem Maloh

0.2%

-----

26. Khaled Mesh’al

-----

0.2%

27. Hakam Blaawee

1.2%

1.1%

28. Hussam Khader

1.1%

-----

29. Abed Albari Atwan

-----

0.2%

30. Ghassan Alshka’

0.4%

-----

31. Yasser Abed Rabbo

2.0%

-----

7) Do you think that the absence of President Yassir Arafat would lead to a void in the Palestinian Authority?

November 4 – 8, 2004

November 13 – 16, 2004

1. Yes

46.6%

69.3%

2. To some extent

39.0%

20.9%

3. No

11.0%

6.4%

4. Don’t know

3.4%

4.2%

8) In the light of President Arafat’s absence, are you optimistic or pessimistic towards the future?

November 4 – 8, 2004

November 13 – 16, 2004

1. Optimistic

19.4%

31.4%

2. Pessimistic

59.7%

56.3%

3. Don’t know

20.9%

12.3%

9) Having the absence of President Yassir Arafat in the background, to which degree you think is the security-political situation worrisome?

November 4 – 8, 2004

November 13 – 16, 2004

1. Very worrisome

37.0%

30.9%

2. Worrisome

32.1%

37.6%

3. Not so worrisome

20.5%

22.7%

4. Not worrisome at all

5.9%

3.3%

5. Don’t know

4.5%

5.5%

10) Don’t you think that it is high time now that Israel removes the check-points as a sign of good will to push the peace process forward?

November 4 – 8, 2004

1. Yes, I think

65.8%

2. No, I don’t think

20.2%

3. Don’t know.

14.0%

11) Do you think that the present stage requires the opening of a new page in the relations between the different Palestinian factions and movements ?

November 4 – 8, 2004

November 13 – 16, 2004

1. Yes, I think

73.3%

85.0%

2. No, I don’t think

16.2%

46.6%

3. Don’t know.

10.5%

8.4%

12) What is the degree of your support to Yassir Arafat at present?

November 4 – 8, 2004

1. Strongly support him

41.6%

2. Somewhat support him

36.6%

3. Somewhat don’t

12.4%

4. Strongly don’t support him

5.3%

5. Don’t know

4.1%

13) Don’t you think that Israel should coordinate and negotiate with the Palestinian Authority prior to the withdrawal from Gaza Strip in accordance with Sharon’s plan?

November 4 – 8, 2004

1. Yes

57.7%

2. No

28.2%

3. Don’t know.

14.1%

14) A suicide bombing took place on 01.11.2004 at Tel Aviv’s central market. Are you with or against such attacks?

November 4 – 8, 2004

1. with

54.5%

2. Against

33.1%

3.. Don’t know

12.4%

16) Are you pro or contra the halt of violence attacks against the Israelis inside the "green line" against the demolition of the separation wall by Israel?

November 4 – 8, 2004

1. Pro

47.9%

2. Contra

37.0%

3. Don’t know

15.1%

17) Do you think that the triumph of the American president George Bush over his rival, Mr. John Kerry, will serve or not serve the peace in the region?

November 4 – 8, 2004

1. will serve peace

8.7%

2. will serve peace to a certain extent

21.9%

3. will not serve peace

61.4%

4. don’t know

8.0%

18) Please express the degree of your support to Mr. Ahmed Qureia (Abu Al-Ala’), the Palestinian Prime-Minister !

November 4 – 8, 2004

1. I Strongly support him

10.4%

2. I Somewhat support him

30.6%

3. I Somewhat don’t

24.2%

4. I Strongly don’t support him

26.0%

5. I Don’t know

8.8%

19) The Israeli parliament (Knesset) approved last week Sharon’s plan of the unilateral withdrawal from Gaza Strip. What do you think is the target of this plan?

November 4 – 8, 2004

1. Withdrawal of the Israeli armed forces from Gaza and dismantling the Jewish settlements there as a first step would lead to a second route, which may revive the peace process.

16.9%

2. Freezing the peace process and undermining the Geneva Accord as to deviate from the international pressure imposed upon Israel for its approval.

38.3%

3. Partial withdrawal from Gaza strip and deployment of the Israeli armed forces around Gaza strip and the West Bank.

32.8%

4. No opinion.

12.0%

20) The Palestinian Legislative Council has carried out on 21.10.2004 a reading followed by an amendment of the Women’s Quota paragraph, which grants both genders 20%-quota of the seats in the local and municipal elections. Are you with or against this amendment?

November 4 – 8, 2004

1. with

41.8%

2. Against

35.2%

3.. Don’t know

23.0%

21) Do you think that the Palestinians are obliged to waive their claims to the right of Home-return, which Israel will never agree to, as the price of establishing an independent state for them and the conclusion of a peace agreement with Israel?

November 4 – 8, 2004

1. The Palestinians have to accept that

15.0%

2. The Palestinians shouldn’t accept that, even if consequently no peace agreement would be concluded with Israel.

72.2%

3. No opinion.

12.8%

22) Don’t you think that the success of the American president George Bush in scoring a second presidential term would grant him more liberty in dealing with the issue of the Israeli-Arab conflict, or not ?

November 4 – 8, 2004

1. I think so

26.6%

2. I don’t think so

46.3%

3.. I don’t know

27.1%

23) The American president George Bush is elected for a second term as president of the United States of America. Are you pleased for that?

November 4 – 8, 2004

1. very pleased

4.3%

2. considerable pleased

11.7%

3. not so much

15.3%

4. not at all

39.9%

5. don’t care

28.8%

24) In case the Palestinian leadership would accept the waiver of the right of Home-return and replace that with financial compensation. Would you accept or refuse that?

November 4 – 8, 2004

1. would accept that

13.0%

2. would refuse that

78.6%

3. no opinion

8.4%

25) Do you think that it’s the right of the Palestinians and Israelis to live in peace and security, or not?

November 4 – 8, 2004

1. Yes

54.7%

2. No

28.8%

3. Don’t know.

16.5%

26) To which degree are you worried about the health condition of President Yassir Arafat?

November 4 – 8, 2004

1. Too much worried

49.6%

2. Worried

31.0%

3. Somewhat worried

11.4%

4. Not worried at all

4.8%

5. Don’t know

3.2%

27) Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the notion that says that the political process (i.e. peace process) is the best thing we can get under current conditions (i.e. international changes):

November 4 – 8, 2004

1. Strongly agree

16.8%

2. Somewhat agree

40.3%

3. Somewhat disagree

17.6%

4. Strongly disagree

13.8%

5. Do not know

11.5%