Richard Melson
September 2006
Palestine Poll Data
An-Najah National University
Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies
Tel: (972) (9) 2345113 Fax: (972)(9) 2345982
Nablus – Palestinian: P.O.Box 7, 707
Email:
Polls@najah.edu hussein596@yahoo.comResults of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll
No 23
September 7-9, 2006
Background
Employees at public institutions went into an open strike after six months of not receiving their salaries and after the absence of any hope in the horizon for the Palestinian Government to secure a regular payment of their salaries. The strike was interpreted by some as an attempt to cause the Government to collapse; others saw the strike as a legal right that aims to enable employees to obtain their financial rights without any political intentions.
On the other side of the scene, President Abbas and Prime Minister Hanyyia are leading negotiations to arrive at an agreement to form a national coalition government according to an agenda that would be approved by all Palestinian factions, particularly Hamas and Fateh.
Within the current political, financial and security crisis that the Palestinian people in the 1967 occupied territories are going through, some voices arose calling for a comprehensive solution for all of these problems. Some called for dissolving the Palestinian Authority after questioning its expediency; others called for new Presidential and PLC elections as a possible solution for the deteriorating political, economic and security realities. Such voices, however, fall on deaf ears as the official level is concerned; be it the Presidency or the Government.
The Results
Following are the results of the 23rd Palestinian Public Opinion Poll conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from September 7 to 9, 2006. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.
This poll undertakes the Palestinian public opinion with reference to the new political realities, particularly the strike of government employees, the formation of a national coalition government, conducting early presidential and PLC elections, Palestinian views of methods and forms of resistance and an assessment of the performance of Palestinian institutions, particularly universities.
The opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not represent by any means the opinion of An-Najah National University.
The sample included 1360 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 860 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 4.7% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.
The General Results:
66.2% of respondents were pessimistic towards the general Palestinian conditions at this stage.
88% of respondents did not feel safe neither for themselves nor for their families and properties under the present circumstances.
73.5% of respondents said that their economic situation under the current circumstances is deteriorating.
63.8% of respondents supported the strike of the public sector employees; 34.3% rejected it.
59% of respondents supported the strike of government school teachers; 39.4% rejected it.
92.5% of respondents, regardless of their support or rejection, said that the demands of employees are just; 6.3% said the contrary.
54.7% of respondents assessed the position of the Palestinian Government towards the strike as "bad".
49.5% of respondents assessed the position of the Palestinian Presidency towards the strike as "bad".
51.9% of respondents assessed the position of the PLC towards the strike as "bad".
55.4% of respondents believed that the strike is the ideal way for employees to obtain their rights.
48.2% of respondents believed that the ideal solution is dissolving the Government if it fails to pay the salaries; 25% believed that the solution lies in the acceptance of the present conditions and the return to work.
50.4% of respondents believed that the on-going debate to form a national coalition government will succeed.
84.9% of respondents supported the formation of a national coalition government; 11.3% rejected.
63% of respondents said that a national coalition government will be able to uplift the siege imposed on Palestinian people: 26.6% said the opposite.
51.6% of respondents believed that Fateh movement is concerned with forming a national coalition government.
44.6% of respondents believed that Hamas movement is concerned with forming a national coalition government.
73.8% of respondents said that forming a national coalition government serves the interest of all Palestinian people.
16.5% of respondents said that overcoming the current political and financial crisis can be accomplished through dissolving the PA, 20.4% through conducting early legislative and presidential elections, 24.1% through leaving things as they are awaiting a divine solution, and 31% said that it can be accomplished through dissolving the Palestinian Government and forming a new one.
59% of respondents believed that conducting early legislative elections would be considered a coup against the results of the legislative elections: 33.3% said the opposite.
47.1% of respondents believed that conducting early presidential elections would be considered a coup against the results of the presidential elections: 43.2% said the opposite.
56% of respondents supported conducting early presidential elections; 38.9% rejected.
60.4% of respondents supported conducting early legislative elections; 34.6% rejected.
51.5% of respondents said that an early PLC elections will relieve Palestinian people of the present crisis; 38.5% said the opposite.
17.4% of respondents will vote for a Hamas candidate if a new Presidential elections are conducted; 37.9% will vote for a Fateh candidate.
18.8% of respondents will vote for A Hamas bloc if a new PLC elections are conducted; 34.8% will vote for a Fateh bloc.
IF two blocs only run for a new PLC elections, 25.1% of respondents will elect a Hamas coalition; 42.6% will elect a PLO coalition.
29.9% of respondents believed that an early presidential and PLC elections would relieve Palestinian people of the present political and financial crisis; 26.5% believed the opposite.
61.3% of respondents supported military operations inside Israel; 32.8% rejected them.
62.3% of respondents supported concentrating resistance within the 1967 occupied territories.
42.5% of respondents rejected launching rockets from the Gaza Strip against Israel.
36.7% of respondents said that launching rockets from the Gaza Strip against Israel hurts the Palestinian cause; 36.5% said it serves it.
36% of respondents believed that the best form of resistance that best serves the Palestinian cause is the armed struggle.
70.4% of respondents assessed the performance of the Palestinian universities as "good".
Of the West Bank respondents will advise a student to pursue his education at An- Najah National University.
Of the Gaza respondents will advise a student to pursue his education at The Islamic University.
Respondents assessed the performance of the following institutions as "good"
49.8% Presidential Institution
40.1% Palestinian Government
37.4% PLC
30.8% Legislative System
33% Security Apparatuses
As for political affiliation respondents give the following results:
People’s Party |
1.0% |
Democratic Front |
1.7% |
Islamic Jihad |
3.3% |
Fateh |
36.2% |
Hamas |
20.7% |
Fida |
0.6% |
Popular Front |
4.6% |
Palestinian National Initiative |
0.8% |
I am an independent nationalist |
6.5% |
I am an independent Islamist |
3.6% |
None of the above |
20.5% |
Others |
0.6% |
The General Results of the Poll
Are you optimistic or pessimistic towards the general Palestinian situation at this stage?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Optimistic |
32.0 |
28.6 |
37.8 |
Pessimistic |
66.2 |
70.1 |
59.4 |
No opinion/I do not know |
1.8 |
1.3 |
2.8 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Under the current situation, do you feel that you, your family and your properties are secure?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Yes |
11.8 |
10.9 |
13.4 |
To some extent I do |
28.5 |
24.8 |
34.8 |
No |
59.5 |
64.2 |
51.4 |
No opinion/I do not know |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Under the current circumstances in which direction has your economic situation developed?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Towards the best |
5.5 |
3.7 |
8.6 |
Towards the worst |
73.5 |
77.0 |
67.6 |
It stayed the same |
21.0 |
19.3 |
23.8 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
In General do you support or reject the strike of government employees?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
I strongly support |
27.3 |
17.7 |
43.8 |
I support |
36.5 |
42.0 |
27.0 |
I reject |
26.5 |
31.7 |
17.4 |
I strongly reject |
7.8 |
6.2 |
10.6 |
No opinion/I do not know |
2.0 |
2.4 |
1.2 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
In general, do you support or reject the strike of public schools teachers?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
I strongly support |
25.8 |
17.4 |
40.2 |
I support |
33.2 |
36.6 |
27.4 |
I reject |
29.4 |
36.0 |
18.0 |
I strongly reject |
10.0 |
7.9 |
13.6 |
No opinion/I do not know |
1.5 |
2.0 |
0.8 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Regardless of your support or rejection of the strike,
do you believe that the demands of employees are just?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Yes |
74.6 |
85.5 |
55.8 |
To some extent they are |
17.9 |
9.9 |
31.8 |
No |
6.3 |
4.0 |
10.2 |
No opinion/I do not know |
1.3 |
0.7 |
2.2 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
How do you assess the position of the Palestinian Government
towards the demands of the employees?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Very good |
9.6 |
6.0 |
15.6 |
Good |
29.5 |
31.9 |
25.4 |
Bad |
36.5 |
41.3 |
28.4 |
Very Bad |
18.2 |
12.8 |
27.6 |
No opinion/I do not know |
6.2 |
8.0 |
3.0 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
How do you assess the position of the Palestinian Presidency
towards the demands of the employees?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Very good |
9.3 |
3.5 |
19.2 |
Good |
33.8 |
29.8 |
40.6 |
Bad |
35.8 |
41.9 |
25.4 |
Very Bad |
13.7 |
14.9 |
11.6 |
No opinion/I do not know |
7.5 |
10.0 |
3.2 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
How do you assess the position of the PLC towards the demands of the employees?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Very good |
7.5 |
3.4 |
13.0 |
Good |
29.8 |
29.7 |
30.0 |
Bad |
36.8 |
40.3 |
30.8 |
Very bad |
15.1 |
10.6 |
22.8 |
No opinion/I do not know |
10.4 |
15.1 |
3.4 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you believe that the strike is the ideal way for employees to obtain their rights?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Yes |
55.4 |
54.0 |
57.8 |
No |
40.4 |
42.6 |
36.8 |
No opinion/I do not know |
4.2 |
3.5 |
5.4 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
If the current government can not secure funds to pay salaries regularly,
what is the solution in your opinion?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Dissolving the current Government |
48.2 |
45.5 |
52.8 |
Accepting reality and going back to work |
25.0 |
23.1 |
28.2 |
Other |
21.6 |
27.2 |
12.0 |
No opinion/I do not know |
5.2 |
4.2 |
7.0 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
There is an on-going debate among the Palestinian factions
for the formation of a coalition government. Do you believe that the debate will succeed?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Yes |
50.4 |
48.7 |
53.2 |
No |
37.9 |
40.7 |
33.2 |
No opinion/I do not know |
11.7 |
10.6 |
13.6 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you support or reject the formation of a coalition government?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
I support |
84.9 |
85.8 |
83.2 |
I reject |
11.3 |
10.6 |
12.4 |
No opinion/I do not know |
3.9 |
3.6 |
4.4 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
If a national coalition government is formed, do you think that it
will be capable of uplifting the political and financial siege imposed on the PA?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Yes |
63.0 |
62.0 |
64.8 |
No |
29.6 |
28.7 |
23.0 |
No opinion/I do not know |
10.4 |
9.3 |
12.2 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you think that Fateh is really concerned with forming a national coalition government?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Yes |
51.6 |
49.0 |
56.2 |
No |
34.5 |
37.1 |
30.0 |
No opinion/I do not know |
13.9 |
14.0 |
3.8 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you think that Hamas is really concerned with forming a national coalition government?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Yes |
44.6 |
46.4 |
41.6 |
No |
40.8 |
39.5 |
43.0 |
No opinion/I do not know |
14.6 |
14.1 |
15.4 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
In your opinion, whose interest would a national coalition government serve?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Fateh's interest |
10.2 |
10.0 |
10.6 |
Hamas' interest |
7.8 |
4.5 |
13.4 |
The interest of all Palestinian people. |
73.8 |
77.2 |
67.8 |
No opinion/I do not know |
8.2 |
8.3 |
8.2 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
In your opinion, how would the current financial and political crisis be bridged?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Dissolving the Palestinian Authority |
16.5 |
16.9 |
16.0 |
Conducting early legislative and presidential elections |
20.4 |
20.1 |
20.8 |
Dissolving the current Palestinian Government and forming a new one |
31.0 |
28.6 |
35.0 |
Leaving things as they are awaiting a breakthrough |
24.1 |
25.6 |
21.6 |
No opinion/I do not know |
8.0 |
8.8 |
6.6 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you think that conducting early legislative elections will
form a coup against the results of the last elections?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Yes |
59.0 |
62.9 |
52.4 |
No |
33.3 |
29.0 |
40.8 |
No opinion/I do not know |
7.6 |
8.1 |
6.8 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you think that conducting early presidential elections will
form a coup against the results of the last elections?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Yes |
47.1 |
52.8 |
37.4 |
No |
43.2 |
37.7 |
52.6 |
No opinion/I do not know |
9.7 |
9.5 |
10.0 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you support or reject early legislative elections?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
I strongly support |
23.1 |
10.1 |
45.4 |
I support |
37.3 |
44.5 |
24.8 |
I reject |
26.3 |
34.2 |
12.8 |
I strongly reject |
8.3 |
5.6 |
13.0 |
No opinion/I do not know |
5.0 |
5.6 |
4.0 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you support or reject early presidential elections?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
I strongly support |
19.1 |
11.7 |
31.8 |
I support |
36.8 |
42.3 |
27.4 |
I reject |
30.6 |
35.3 |
22.4 |
I strongly reject |
8.3 |
5.5 |
13.2 |
No opinion/I do not know |
5.1 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you think that conducting early legislative elections will help
Palestinian people to overcome the current crisis that they go through?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Yes |
51.5 |
46.2 |
60.6 |
No |
38.5 |
44.4 |
28.4 |
No opinion/I do not know |
10.0 |
9.4 |
11.0 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
If presidential elections were held now, which one of the following candidates would you vote for?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Fateh's candidate |
34.9 |
28.7 |
45.6 |
Hamas' candidate |
17.4 |
17.3 |
17.4 |
A national independent candidate |
12.1 |
12.2 |
12.0 |
An Islamist independent candidate |
6.8 |
7.9 |
5.0 |
A candidate of the leftist movements |
3.8 |
2.9 |
5.4 |
None of the above |
20.9 |
26.2 |
11.8 |
No opinion/I do not know |
4.0 |
4.8 |
2.8 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
If legislative elections were held now, which one of the following blocs would you vote for?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Fateh's bloc |
34.8 |
29.9 |
43.2 |
Hamas' bloc |
18.8 |
18.5 |
19.4 |
An independent nationalist bloc |
10.4 |
10.8 |
9.8 |
An independent Islamist bloc |
6.2 |
7.1 |
4.6 |
The leftist movements bloc |
5.1 |
4.0 |
7.2 |
None of the above |
20.7 |
25.2 |
13.0 |
No opinion/I do not know |
3.9 |
4.5 |
2.8 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
If early legislative elections were held and only tow blocs ran for elections,
which one would you vote for?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
A coalition between Hamas and other Islamic factions |
25.1 |
27.3 |
21.2 |
A coalition of PLO parties |
42.6 |
38.0 |
50.6 |
I will vote for neither of them |
26.6 |
28.3 |
23.8 |
No opinion/I do not know |
5.7 |
6.4 |
4.4 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you think that early presidential and legislative elections will help
Palestinian people to overcome the current political and financial crisis?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Yes |
29.9 |
27.8 |
33.6 |
Maybe |
39.8 |
35.8 |
46.6 |
No |
26.5 |
32.2 |
16.6 |
No opinion/I do not know |
3.8 |
4.2 |
3.2 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you support or reject armed Palestinian operations inside Israel?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
I strongly support |
21.5 |
14.7 |
33.4 |
I support |
39.8 |
44.2 |
32.2 |
I reject |
25.0 |
29.4 |
17.4 |
I strongly reject |
7.8 |
4.9 |
12.8 |
No opinion/I do not know |
5.9 |
6.9 |
4.2 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you support or reject limiting Palestinian resistance against
Israel to the 1967 occupied territories in addition to political negotiations?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
I strongly support |
17.8 |
13.4 |
25.4 |
I support |
44.5 |
51.6 |
32.2 |
I reject |
21.0 |
23.1 |
17.4 |
I strongly reject |
9.9 |
3.5 |
21.0 |
No opinion/I do not know |
6.8 |
8.4 |
4.0 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you support or reject the launching of rockets by Palestinian factions against Israel from the Gaza Strip?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
I strongly support |
19.3 |
14.5 |
27.6 |
I support |
33.2 |
38.6 |
24.0 |
I reject |
31.8 |
34.8 |
26.8 |
I strongly reject |
10.7 |
6.0 |
18.8 |
No opinion/I do not know |
4.9 |
6.0 |
2.8 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Do you think that launching rockets against Israel from the Strip
will hurt or serve the national Palestinian resistance?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
It will serve |
36.5 |
35.0 |
39.2 |
It will hurt |
36.7 |
38.8 |
33.0 |
It is useless |
21.5 |
20.7 |
23.0 |
No opinion/I do not know |
5.2 |
5.5 |
4.8 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
In your opinion and within the current local and international circumstances,
what form of resistance would best serve the Palestinian cause?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Nonviolent struggle |
10.4 |
11.9 |
8.0 |
Armed struggle |
36.0 |
33.7 |
40.0 |
Diplomatic struggle |
13.4 |
11.7 |
16.2 |
Resorting to negotiations as before |
29.4 |
29.9 |
28.6 |
Other |
5.7 |
7.4 |
2.8 |
No opinion/I do not know |
5.0 |
5.3 |
4.4 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Under the current circumstances, how do you assess the performance of Palestinian Universities?
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
Very good |
20.2 |
19.2 |
22.0 |
Good |
50.1 |
52.6 |
46.0 |
Bad |
17.2 |
17.0 |
17.6 |
Very bad |
6.5 |
4.5 |
9.9 |
No opinion/I do not know |
6.0 |
6.7 |
4.6 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Regardless of distance, place of dwelling or the social and financial circumstances,
if you are to give advice to a student to join a university in the West Bank,
which one of the following will you advise him/her to join?
West Bank |
|
The American University in Jenin |
2.4 |
Birzeit University |
24.4 |
Bethlehem University |
8.5 |
An Najah National University |
43.8 |
Al Quds University |
4.0 |
Al Quds Open University |
14.1 |
Hebron University |
10.8 |
No opinion/I do not know |
3.7 |
Total |
100.0 |
Regardless of distance, place of dwelling or the social and financial circumstances,
if you are to give advice to a student to join a university in the Gaza Strip,
which one of the following will you advise him/her to join?
Total |
|
Al Azhar University |
18.4 |
The Islamic University |
39.8 |
Al Aqsa University |
22.8 |
Al Quds Open University |
12.4 |
No opinion/I do not know |
6.6 |
Total |
100.0 |
In general how do you assess the performance of the following Palestinian institutions?
Total |
||||
Good |
bad |
No opinion/ I do not know |
||
The Palestinian Presidency |
49.8 |
44.1 |
6.1 |
|
The Palestinian Government |
40.1 |
51.9 |
7.9 |
|
The PLC |
37.4 |
52.6 |
10.0 |
|
The Judicial System |
30.8 |
53.2 |
16.0 |
|
The Security Apparatuses |
33.0 |
56.3 |
10.7 |
|
West Bank |
||||
Good |
Bad |
No opinion/ I do not know |
||
The Palestinian Presidency |
40.3 |
51.9 |
7.8 |
|
The Palestinian Government |
37.2 |
52.6 |
10.2 |
|
The PLC |
37.2 |
50.3 |
12.4 |
|
The Judicial System |
29.3 |
55.1 |
15.6 |
|
The Security Apparatuses |
27.8 |
63.1 |
9.1 |
|
Gaza Strip |
||||
Good |
Bad |
No opinion/ I do not know |
||
The Palestinian Presidency |
66.0 |
30.8 |
3.2 |
|
The Palestinian Government |
45.2 |
50.8 |
4.0 |
|
The PLC |
37.6 |
56.6 |
5.8 |
|
The Judicial System |
33.4 |
49.8 |
16.8 |
|
The Security Apparatuses |
42.0 |
44.4 |
13.6 |
|
Which of the following political affiliations do you support?
PARTY |
Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
People’s Party |
1.0 |
0.7 |
1.4 |
Democratic Front |
1.7 |
1.4 |
2.2 |
Islamic Jihad |
3.3 |
2.3 |
5.0 |
Fateh |
36.2 |
31.0 |
45.0 |
Hamas |
20.7 |
21.4 |
19.6 |
Fida |
0.6 |
0.2 |
1.2 |
Popular Front |
4.6 |
2.9 |
7.4 |
Palestinian National Initiative |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
I am an independent nationalist |
6.5 |
6.0 |
7.2 |
I am an independent Islamist |
3.6 |
4.0 |
3.0 |
None of the above |
20.5 |
28.6 |
6.6 |
Others |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Hello; Enclosed please find the major results of the 23rd Public Opinion Poll conducted between September 7-9 by the Center of Opinion Poll and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University. This poll undertakes the Palestinian public opinion with reference to the new political realities, particularly the strike of government employees, the formation of a national coalition government, conducting early presidential and PLC elections, Palestinian views of methods and forms of resistance and an assessment of the performance of Palestinian institutions, particularly universities. We hope that you will be able to benefit from these results and let us know of your observations, comments and advice.
Your response will be very much appreciated.
Thanks Dr. Hussein Ahmad Director,
Opinion Polls and Survey Study Center An-Najah National University
Poll No. 23
Attachment: poll23results.doc (0.28 MB)
Hussein Ahmad hussein596@yahoo.com
Sunday, September 10, 2006