Richard Melson

December 2005

Russia Forecasting

http://www.ecfor.rssi.ru/welcome.htm

Institute of Economic Forecasting

Russian Academy of Sciences

http://www.ecfor.rssi.ru/welcome.htm

Administration

Departments of the Institute of Economic Forecasting

Center of Economic Forecasting (in Russian)

Training

Publishing ("Studies on Russian Economic Development")

International Ties

The Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS)

The Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) is one of the leading research institutes in the country in the field of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. Since it was founded in 1986, the Institute has been carrying out both fundamental and applied research.

Among its 200 researchers, there are 20 state doctorates and more than 110 Ph.Ds. These include RAS correspondent member Victor V. Ivanter, and professors Anatoly G. Vishnevsky, Victor A. Volkonsky, Felix N. Klotsvog, Nickolai I. Komkov, Efrem Z. Maiminas, Alexander S. Nekrasov, Oleg S. Pchelintsev and others.

The main goal of the Institute is short, medium, and long term forecasting of economic and social development of Russia. The main areas of research at the Institute are:

Many national institutions and organizations cooperate with the Institute. Among them are the Ministries of Science, Economics, Finance, the Central Bank, the State Industrial Committee, and the Ministries of Fuel and Energy, Defense, and Institute of Economic Forecasting Transport, etc.

The Institute regularly advises the members of the Government, the Federation Council, and the State Duma.

The Institute carries out joint research work with a number of public associations, including the Federation of Russian Manufacturers, the Russian Association of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs etc.

The Institute develops complex programs of social and economic development for various regions of Russia.

The Institute is interested in further developing of scientific and business contacts, and is ready to consider proposals on various projects from governmental and private local and foreign organizations.

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Mailing address: 47 Nakhimovsky prosp., Moscow, 117418, Russia

FAX: (095)310-70-71

Phones:

(095) 129-3422 - Executive Secretary
(095) 129-1800 - Office
(095) 129-1800 - Training Dpt
(095) 332-4445 - Council for dissertations
(095) 332-4462 - branch of Moscow State University department
(095) 129-1822 - Editorial board "Problemy prognozirovaniya"

E-mail: office@mail.ecfor.rssi.ru


Some Economics Related Links:

Institute of Economic Forecasting

Russian Academy of Sciences

Administration

Ivanter, Victor V.
correspondent member of RAS
Doctor of economics, professor
Director
tel.: (095) 129-36-33

Nekrasov, Alexander S.
Doctor of economics, professor
Deputy Director
tel.: (095) 129-06-44

Panfilov, Vyacheslav S.
Candidate of economics
Deputy Director
tel.: (095) 129-39-44

Ksenofontov, Mikhail Y.
Candidate of economics
Deputy Director
tel.: (095) 129-34-11

Uziakov, Marat N.
Candidate of economics
Deputy Director
tel.: (095) 129-67-97

Kuvalin, Dmitry B.
Executive Secretary
tel.: (095) 129-34-22

Departments of the Institute of Economic Forecasting

Center for Demography and Human Ecology

Forecasting of the Dynamics and Structure of the National Economy
Head - Suvorov, Nickolai V., candidate of economics

Research is focused on the following subjects:

- analysis of the structural shifts in the national economy and forecasting the effects of economic changes;
- quantitative evaluation of indicators for current macroeconomic development, structure of the national economy, and the intersectoral effects as well as their medium term forecasting;
- analysis of the specific situation in the various sectors of the national economy;
- development of the models for forecasting of macroeconomic development and structural changes.

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Analysis and Forecasting of Production Potential
Head - Uziakov, Marat N., candidate of economics

Main subjects of research:

- main factors determining the size and structure of investments in the Russian economy;
- material and financial resources for capital investment;
- options for investment activity in the forecast period;
- the establishment of a sustainable investment process under the new market conditions;
- upgrading the technical potential under transition to market economy.

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Macroeconomic Analysis and Short Term Forecasting
Head - Belousov, Andrey R., candidate of economics

Main subjects of research are:

- current trends in economic development;
- situation in industry;
- possible consequences of various economic decisions in the sphere of structural, financial, and budget policies.

A methodology has been developed, and input-output and econometric models have been designed for short and medium term scenarios for economic development, inflation and incomes, which are used for short term - annual and quarterly - macroeconomic forecasting of the national economy's development.

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Forecasting Financial Resources
Head - Panfilov, Vyacheslav S., candidate of economics

Functioning of the financial and credit environment is investigated. Analysis and forecasting of the situation in financial and monetary markets.

Special attention is paid to the possibilities of state regulation (including institutional changes) of the financial and monetary markets. Short and medium term forecasts of inflation, interest rates, investment financing are developed.

Reform of banking, budget, and taxation systems are under consideration.

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Forecasting the Performance of the Military Industrial Sector
Head - Rassadin, Victor N., candidate of economics

Main subjects of research:

- economic problems of defense contracts at present and in future;
- using the resource and technical potential of the military complex for implementing structural changes in the Russian economy;
- conversion of the military potential of Russia, implementing regional and sectoral conversion programs;
- defense contracts at the military enterprises, role of the state in managing defense enterprises.

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Forecasting the Performance of the Energy Sector
Head - Prof. Nekrasov, Alexander S., doctor of economics

Main subjects of research are:

- conditions and function of the energy sector in the national economy, problems of the interrelation between the energy sector and the economy as a whole;
- methodological problems of energy supply forecasting under various scenarios of the economic development;
- economic, social, technical, and environmental characteristics of fuel consumption in various sectors of the national economy;
- analysis and forecasting of the subindustries of the energy sector.

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Forecasting the Performance of the Machine-building Sector
Head - Borisov, Vladimir N., candidate of economics

Following subjects are developed:

- analysis, modeling, and forecasting of the machine-building sector;
- technical resources for the structural changes in the production potential of the national economy;
- establishing deflators for the machine-building goods with regards to their quality.

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Regional Problems of Social and Economic Development
Head - Pchelintsev, Oleg S., candidate of economics

Main subjects of research:

- different scenarios of regional development in transition to a market economy;
- regional investment and structural policy;
- specific features of regional infrastructure economics;
- social problems of regional development (changes in family structure, employment, urbanization, population structure)
- sociological and statistical analysis of the residential sector.

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Forecasting of Regional Macroeconomic Proportions
Head - Prof. Klotsvog, Felix N., doctor of economics

Analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic processes and structural changes in Russia and its large economic regions; economic relations with the former USSR republics.

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Organizational and Economic Management of Science and Technology
Head - Prof. Komkov, Nickolai I., doctor of economics

Research is focused on the following subjects:

- analysis and forecasting of technological structure and innovations;
- evaluation and estimation of the economic, technical and social characteristics of complex technologies;
- mechanism of the organizational and economic management of the scientific and technical potential;
- methods of designing R&D programs and investment projects;
- methods of expert evaluation, developing of the methods of evaluation, analysis, and selection of innovation projects.

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Problems of the Transition Period
Head - Prof. Volkonsky, Victor A., Doctor of economics

Main topics of research:

- evaluation of the general concepts of economic reform;
- role of the state in regulating the market economy, including transition period;
- interrelation of structural changes, developing of institutional and economic structures, and general economic processes;
- inflation mechanism, price and financial proportions under transition to the market economy.

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Analysis and Forecasting of Institutional Changes
Head - Blokhin, Andrey A., candidate of economics

Long-term economic processes both on macro and micro levels are researched.

Main subjects of analysis and forecasting are:

- changes in the institutional structure of the national economy;
- privatization and securities market development;
- restructuring of insolvent enterprises without putting them into receivership;
- development of the banking system and economic potential of enterprises;
- interdependence of environmental and economic issues.

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Forecasting Incomes and Consumption
Head - Suvorov, Anatoly V., candidate of economics

Research is focused on the following topics:

- macroeconomic factors of incomes volume and structure;
- social programs and role of the state in implementing them;
- analysis and forecasting of personal incomes and expenses, income differentiation, dynamics and structure of consumption, consumer prices by type of goods and branches based on intersectoral balance.

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Sociological Methods for Economic Studies
Head - Belanovsky, Sergei A., doctor of economics

Research is carried out mainly at the level of enterprises and subindustries with the goal of getting a realistic picture of the situation in the branches of the economy and in the regions. "Restricted spheres", shadow economics and other latent phenomena are under investigation.

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Forecasting Labour Resources
Head - Korovkin, Andrey G., candidate of economics

Main topics of research are:

- analysis and forecasting of employment, factors of its dynamics and structure;
- regulation of the labor market and social guarantees for the work force;
- forecasting the work force and employment.

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Forecasting the Social Factors of Economic Growth
Head - Kuznetsov, Oleg E., candidate of economics

A concept of the long-term strategy for social development is being developed, where the social resources are considered as factors of economic growth. Work motivations and their formation are examined. Also the issues of personal incomes, pricing for consumer goods and services, their production and distribution are under consideration.

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Long-term Development of the Social and Cultural Sphere
Head - Rozenfeld, Boris A., candidate of economics

Long-term tendencies and possible strategies for the development of health care, education and culture are studied. Principles and alternatives of the governmental policy in the social and cultural spheres under transition to the market economy are considered.

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Center for Demography and Human Ecology

Head - Vishnevsky, Anatoly G., doctor of economics


Analysis and Forecasting of Population Reproduction
Head - Zakharov, Sergei V., candidate of economics

Studies of birth rates, changes in the population and its age structure in Russia and the former USSR republics. Demographic methods, family planning.

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Analysis and Forecasting of Mortality
Head - Shkolnikov, Vladimir M., candidate of geography

Main topic of studies - mortality in Russia and the former USSR republics. Main attention is paid to the structure of mortality by cause of death. Mortality curves are plotted. Methodology of demographic forecasting is being developed.

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Regional Forecasting of the Population's Health
Head - Prokhorov, Boris B., doctor of geography

Main subjects of study are:

- condition of the population's health in Russia and its regions;
- impacts of different factors on health (natural factors, pollution and degradation of the environment, social and economic situation);
- environmental and sanitary studies of industrial systems;
- methodology of human ecology;
- social and demographic problems of the minorities of the Far North .

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Analysis and Forecasting of the Migration
Head - Zaionchkovskaia, Janna A., candidate of geography

Main topics of the studies are internal migration in Russia, and between Russia and the former USSR republics. The key problems are:

- migration potential of the Russian speaking population in the former USSR republics;
- adaptation of the refugees in Russia;
- "brain drain";
- migration and immigration;
- various migration flows by age and sex.

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Training

The Institute has a post-graduate program for 20-25 people each year, including foreign students. Students are admitted on a competitive basis, and by special appointment. These can be admitted as visiting fellows or as paid researches. Dissertation studies are carried out under supervision of the leading researchers of the Institute. Visiting fellows receive a stipend. Students from other cities are provided with a room in one of the Moscow hostels.

There is a dissertation council for defending doctorate and candidate degrees on the specialty " Economics, Planning, and Management of the National Economy" (08.00.05) .

A branch of the macroeconomic regulation and planning department of the Economics faculty of the Moscow State University is established in the Institute. The Institute provides special courses to students based on the research subjects of the Institute. Leading researchers of the Institute are teaching there.

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Publishing

Since 1990 a scientific journal "Problemy Prognozirovaniya" has been published in the Institute. It is also bimonthly published in English as "Studies on Russian Economic Development" by "MAIK Nauka/ Interperiodica". The publications of the journal give information on the key economic and social problems in Russia, present the most significant results of the research at the Institute, and publish a good amount of statistics and methodological materials.

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International Ties

The Institute of Economic Forecasting takes part in international conferences and symposiums, carries out joint research work, and publishes results in the foreign press. Among the foreign partners of the Institutes are colleagues from China, France, Japan, USA, Republic of Korea, Finland and other countries.

Russia Forecasting

Mailing address:

47 Nakhimovsky prosp., Moscow, 117418, Russia

FAX: (095)310-70-71

Phones:

(095) 129-3422 - Executive Secretary
(095) 129-1800 - Office
(095) 129-1800 - Training Dpt
(095) 332-4445 - Council for dissertations
(095) 332-4462 - branch of Moscow State University department
(095) 129-1822 - Editorial board "Problemy prognozirovaniya"

E-mail: office@mail.ecfor.rssi.ru

December 27, 2005